My thoughts:MSNBC ran an interesting article about businesses that won't be here ten years from now. Rounding out the list were arcades:
Coin-operated arcades
With Nintendo Wii, casual gaming online and the Xbox 360, the video game arcade industry is thriving, but not the standalone brick-and-mortar arcades. For those of you who thought arcades were already dead, they still exist — at movie theaters, miniature golf courses and other touristy spots — but it seems only a matter of time before they vanish from the landscape. Ten years ago, there were 10,000 arcades in the nation, and now the number is close to 3,000, according to the American Amusement Machine Association. Revenue from arcade game units brought in $866 million last year, which sounds good until you consider that in 1994, the industry was pocketing $2.3 billion and that the profits are only still high because it costs so much to play a game.
Odds of survival in 10 years: Game over.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/20873711/page/2/
I think the death news is premature. I think teenagers will always need a place to hang out and "do things". They are much too hyper for coffee shops. Arcades may just adapt to meet those needs. Look at the success of dance games. DDR on paper should fail with easily embarrassed teens; however, it blossomed because hyper kids need things to do!
The trend extends to the home market with the popularity of many types of music games like Guitar Hero, Donkey Konga, Samba de Amigo. Now the Wii seems to be a profitable system based almost entirely in immersion. Arcades could cash in my making use of that trend. More physically involved games could bring a Saturday night audience back. In Japan, I noticed mostly couples in Arcades. They were doing physical things together. Dance games were far more popular than single player "screen games".
VCRs couldn't kill movie theaters because there is a HUGE social aspect. The arcade should find a new niche as a dating alternative if they stay open late and target the young adult crowd with easy to grasp, physically involved games that a friendly to both genders. Even games like Mr. Driller prove this.
What do you think?